Financial data for May released: "Liquid money" increases, M1 growth rate rises significantly, and enterprises' willingness to withdraw funds increases significantly

Today, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the financial data for May. As of month-end May 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. In the first five months, the net cash injection was 306.4 billion yuan.

In terms of social financing, the outstanding social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan as of month-end May 2025, up 8.7% YoY. From January to May, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, with a YoY increase of 3.83 trillion yuan. In May alone, the incremental social financing scale was 2.29 trillion yuan, with a YoY increase of 224.7 billion yuan.

"The rapid growth in social financing scale is mainly driven by direct financing such as government bonds and corporate bonds," an authoritative expert explained to a reporter from Cailian Press. Among them, there has been a significant change in corporate bond financing. "Since Q2, the overall cost of corporate bond issuance has shown a downward trend, remaining at a low level. In May, the average yield to maturity of 5-year AAA-rated corporate bonds was 1.97%, further declining from the already low level in April. Against the backdrop of low interest rates, enterprises have increased their bond financing efforts, which helps reduce overall financing costs."

In addition, a bank account manager also reflected to a reporter from Cailian Press that bank customers are now generally more concerned about interest rate adjustments. In May, the PBOC lowered the policy interest rate, and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which serves as the benchmark for loan market pricing, also declined accordingly. Many enterprises found the interest rates more favorable, and their willingness to withdraw funds increased significantly.

"Liquid Money" Growth Accelerates, Personal Mortgage Loan Disbursements Increase

Among the financial data for May, there was also a notable change in the growth rate of M1.

As of month-end May, M1 was up 2.3% YoY. In response, an authoritative expert frankly told a reporter from Cailian Press that currently, the M1 statistical scope includes currency in circulation (M0), current deposits of units and individuals, and customer reserves of non-bank payment institutions (such as WeChat Wallet and Alipay balances). Compared with time deposits in bank accounts, these are considered "liquid money" that is more convenient for payment transactions. In May, the growth rate of this "liquid money" accelerated significantly.

In the view of the authoritative expert, the accelerated growth of "liquid money" reflects that the recent package of financial support measures has effectively boosted market confidence, with signs of recovery and improvement in economic activities such as investment and consumption.

Another indicator that also proves the change in the heat of economic activities is personal loans. Data shows that a banker reflected to a reporter from Cailian Press that with the continued recovery of the local real estate market transactions, personal mortgage loan disbursements have increased.

The Substitution Effect of Bonds on Loans Continues to Manifest

Regarding the loan data that the market is concerned about, an authoritative expert told a reporter from Cailian Press that nearly 90% of the social financing scale consists of bonds and loans. Although there are differences in their applicable scenarios, to a certain extent, they can substitute and complement each other, jointly creating a favorable financial aggregate environment for stable economic growth.

In fact, recently, the substitution effect of bonds for loans has also been quite evident. In response, experts have interpreted this as follows: On the one hand, the issuance of special refinancing bonds to repay bank loans has kept loan growth at around 8% after adjusting for the relevant impacts. "Special refinancing bonds issued for debt resolution exceeded 2 trillion yuan in Q4 last year, and over 1.6 trillion yuan have been issued since the beginning of this year. Preliminary estimates from market surveys suggest that the corresponding loans replaced amount to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, with loan growth remaining at around 8% at the end of May after adjustment.

The aforementioned experts frankly stated that in the short term, the debt replacement of financing platforms to repay bank loans may affect the total credit volume. However, in the long term, it helps mitigate local debt risks, freeing up more local fiscal resources to benefit people's livelihoods, promote development, and enhance the momentum of economic growth.

On the other hand, government bonds substitute for bank loans. Some market experts told a Caixin reporter that there is a certain overlap in the investment directions of some government bonds and bank loans. For instance, in infrastructure projects, both special bonds and bank loans can serve as funding sources. In projects involving the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, in addition to bank loans providing support, special bonds have recently been added to the policy toolkit and are currently being gradually implemented.

Several banks in an eastern province told a Caixin reporter that since the beginning of this year, fiscal policies have become more proactive, with an increase in the issuance of local government bonds. Local governments and related enterprises are more inclined to use special bonds to meet the funding needs of project construction, which has a certain substitution effect on bank loans. Data shows that among the sources of fixed asset investment funds from January to April this year, national budgetary funds, including government bonds, grew by 16.7% YoY, significantly higher than the YoY growth rates of self-raised funds (3.9%), domestic loans (2.8%), and other funding sources (-4.2%).

In addition, corporate bonds have also substituted for bank loans to some extent. Authoritative experts analyzed to a Caixin reporter that, in addition to interest rate impacts, some trending and institutional factors are also influencing enterprises' choices of financing methods. A series of supportive policies have been continuously introduced in recent years, facilitating smoother access for enterprises to issue bonds, particularly showing more positive changes in bond financing for private and technology innovation enterprises. In early May this year, the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued multiple measures to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds. As these measures gradually take effect, enterprises will find it more convenient to issue technology innovation bonds for financing.

"Therefore, against the backdrop of increasingly diversified financing channels and accelerated development of direct financing, the scale of social financing is a more comprehensive measure of financial support than loans alone."Authoritative experts have interpreted it as follows.